A glance at Bush's approval ratings, or approval/disapproval spread will reveal a striking pattern since 9/11. Bush's approval has risen in four sudden peaks (9/01, 3/03, 11/03, and 9/04) and fallen in between. Each peak has been weaker than the last.

Bush's peak spreads each line up:

About +85% in 9/01

About +55% in 3/03 (lost 30% in 18 months)

About +30% in 11/03 (lost 25% in 8 months)

About +10% in 9/04 (lost 20% in 10 months)

... revealing not a line but certainly a zone of resistance.

Bush has fallen below that zone after each peak, and is falling below that zone again. But each past surprise has brought him to that zone. If Bush obtains an 'October Surprise' I expect him to return to this zone, but not break above this zone.

I figure (WITH an 'October Surprise') a +5% approval/disapproval spread and a 45% approval rating. This is 5% from his current position, so I reduce his scores (vis-a-vis Bowers) by 5% and increase Kerry's score (same) by 5%.

This puts several states firmly in the Kerry camp:

Arkansas
Colorado
Missouri
Ohio

and more weakly in the Kerry camp:

Arizona
North Carolina
Virginia
West Virginia