Bush's peak spreads each line up:
About +85% in 9/01
About +55% in 3/03 (lost 30% in 18 months)
About +30% in 11/03 (lost 25% in 8 months)
About +10% in 9/04 (lost 20% in 10 months)
... revealing not a line but certainly a zone of resistance.
Bush has fallen below that zone after each peak, and is falling below that zone again. But each past surprise has brought him to that zone. If Bush obtains an 'October Surprise' I expect him to return to this zone, but not break above this zone.
I figure (WITH an 'October Surprise') a +5% approval/disapproval spread and a 45% approval rating. This is 5% from his current position, so I reduce his scores (vis-a-vis Bowers) by 5% and increase Kerry's score (same) by 5%.
This puts several states firmly in the Kerry camp:
Arkansas
Colorado
Missouri
Ohio
and more weakly in the Kerry camp:
Arizona
North Carolina
Virginia
West Virginia
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